Every year, astute fantasy managers win their league by preying on the less-patient managers in their league. You know those managers (I've been accused of being one). The ones that drop a guy if he struggles for a week. The ones that panic when they're in 3rd-to-last place after the first month. As a much more mature, wiser fantasy manager (as I'm sure you are), your job is to recognize which managers you can prey on...and then find the guys you can buy low after the first month. Here are 5 names to get you started.
Ryan Howard, 1B (Phi) - .169 avg, 17 R, 6 HR, 16 RBI - Howard's batting average is atrocious - there's no doubt about it - but the rest of his numbers aren't that bad. Yes he struggled in April, but he struggled in April last year too. Last April, Howard batted .221 with fewer HR, RBI, and R than he had this April. Oh yeah and he still finished with MVP-type numbers last year 94 R/47 HR/136 RBI. With table-setter Jimmy Rollins on this way back later this week from a sprained ankle, Howard will start producing soon. For now, he's still slumping, so get him while the gettin' is good.
Brad Hawpe, OF (Col) - .269 avg, 14 R, 3 HR, 14 RBI - Hawpe's breakout season a year ago gave a lot of fantasy owners sky-high hopes heading into this year. If any of those managers are as impatient as I can be sometimes, they're likely ready to jump ship on Hawpe. Pounce on him NOW. Hawpe is 7-for-16 over the last 4 games with 2 homers and 6 RBI in that span. He's been through this before. Remember his .256 avg and 3 April HRs last year?
Delmon Young, OF (Min) - .263 avg, 15 R, 0 HR, 9 RBI, 6 SB - Delmon smaked 13 HR and drove in 93 runs last year, giving fantasy owners a taste of why he was taken #1 overall by the Rays in '03. After the first month of '08, those same owners likely have a sour taste in their mouths. Young isn't worried, and neither should you be. Last year, Young's best months came in June, July, and August. Consider this too: He only stole 10 bases last year. He's already got 6 this year.
Robinson Cano, 2B (NYY) - .154 avg, 7 R, 3 HR, 8 RBI - Hideous, ugly, nasty, gross: Plenty of adjectives can be used to describe your fantasy team if you banked on Cano to be your star 2nd baseman this year. If you've got him on your team, I recommend riding this one out rather than selling low. Cano's best months are undoubtedly ahead of him. Last July and August, Cano batted .343 with 13 HR and 43 RBI. He's been about as consistent as 2nd basemen come over the last couple years. There's no reason to think he won't rebound.
Hunter Pence, OF (Hou) - .254 avg, 15 R, 4 HR, 16 RBI - After Pence announced his presence with authority (thanks Ebby Calvin LaLoosh) last year, fantasy owners might be wondering if he was just a flash-in-the-pan. Through April, you might've had a convincing argument. However as soon as Pence turned the page on his Bull Durham quote-a-day desk calendar, he's turned the page on his season. Since May 1, Pence has 3 HR and 6 RBI. He's put together a modest 4-game hitting streak and looks to be back on track to matching his numbers from a year ago. Go get him before he gets too hot.
Tuesday, May 6, 2008
Ian Stewart - Acting like a baby
Rockies 3B prospect Ian Stewart didn't get the call-up last week, and he's not happy about it; now its affecting his play...
As of a week ago, many fans thought an Ian Stewart call-up was imminent. Troy Tulowitzki went down with a torn tendon in his quad and the Rockies started shifting players around to cover. Garrett Atkins played 2nd base for a game; it looked like the Rockies were trying to find a way to get super-prospect Ian Stewart to the bigs. Well that didn't happen. When Tulo went down, Omar Quintanilla and Jon Herrera came up...Stewart stayed down.
Since that time (8 games ago), Stewart is 1-for-30 at the plate, dropping his batting average from .313 to .238. It'd be an awfully big coincidence that Stewart's slump (which is jeopardizing ANY call-up he might get) coincides with Herrera and Quintanilla being called up instead of Stewart. Sounds like someone is a little upset
As of a week ago, many fans thought an Ian Stewart call-up was imminent. Troy Tulowitzki went down with a torn tendon in his quad and the Rockies started shifting players around to cover. Garrett Atkins played 2nd base for a game; it looked like the Rockies were trying to find a way to get super-prospect Ian Stewart to the bigs. Well that didn't happen. When Tulo went down, Omar Quintanilla and Jon Herrera came up...Stewart stayed down.
Since that time (8 games ago), Stewart is 1-for-30 at the plate, dropping his batting average from .313 to .238. It'd be an awfully big coincidence that Stewart's slump (which is jeopardizing ANY call-up he might get) coincides with Herrera and Quintanilla being called up instead of Stewart. Sounds like someone is a little upset
Monday, May 5, 2008
Sliding Shorts Fantasy Notebook 5/5
Notes of interest from MLB's Cinco de Mayo slate of games ...
Johnny Cueto rebounded nicely Monday night (6 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 8 K). Hopefully he's figured things out after a pair of rough starts ... Rough start for Cueto's counterpart on Monday night. Converted reliever Ryan Dempster suffered what you might call a "tough-luck loss" (6 IP, 5 R, 0 ER, 7 K) ... Meanwhile, rookie catcher Geovany Soto continues to tear the cover off the ball (3-3 vs. CIN, .352 avg.) ... Boston ace Daisuke Matsuzaka walked a career-high 8 batters vs. Detroit (5 IP, 2 H, 1 ER), picked up 5th win against no losses ... Sox teammate Mike Lowell gave Dice-K all the run support he'd need when he launched his 1st homer of the year, a 2-run shot in the 2nd inning ... Toronto SP Dustin McGowan shut down the White Sox, who have scored just 5 runs in their last 4 games (all losses) ... Angels SP Ervin Santana joined teammate Joe Saunders at 6-0; Santana shutout the Royals Monday night, lowering his season ERA to 2.02 ... Willy Taveras picked up his league-leading 14th stolen base, but the slumping Rockies lost to the Cardinals, who now boast a 2 game lead in the NL Central ... Speaking of the NL Central, Brewers GM Doug Melvin told the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel on Monday that he's still committed to Eric Gagne as his closer (Gagne has blown 5 saves in 14 chances this season) ... Max Scherzer's first major league start was slightly underwhelming, although not completely disappointing (4 IP, 7 H, 5 R, 2 ER, 5 K vs. Phi); Only 2 walks Monday night; Scherzer's on the right track ... Staying on the west coast, mixed results Monday night for the Mariners' recent call-ups. 0-for-3 with a run scored for C/DH Jeff Clement, who saw his season average drop to .176; meanwhile outfielder Wladimir Balentien (pronounced BAL-en-TEEN) launched his 2nd homer of the year ... Orioles OF Nick Markakis continues to struggle (0-for4 vs. Oak); he's 6-for-40 over his last 10 games, dropping his season average to .263
Johnny Cueto rebounded nicely Monday night (6 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 8 K). Hopefully he's figured things out after a pair of rough starts ... Rough start for Cueto's counterpart on Monday night. Converted reliever Ryan Dempster suffered what you might call a "tough-luck loss" (6 IP, 5 R, 0 ER, 7 K) ... Meanwhile, rookie catcher Geovany Soto continues to tear the cover off the ball (3-3 vs. CIN, .352 avg.) ... Boston ace Daisuke Matsuzaka walked a career-high 8 batters vs. Detroit (5 IP, 2 H, 1 ER), picked up 5th win against no losses ... Sox teammate Mike Lowell gave Dice-K all the run support he'd need when he launched his 1st homer of the year, a 2-run shot in the 2nd inning ... Toronto SP Dustin McGowan shut down the White Sox, who have scored just 5 runs in their last 4 games (all losses) ... Angels SP Ervin Santana joined teammate Joe Saunders at 6-0; Santana shutout the Royals Monday night, lowering his season ERA to 2.02 ... Willy Taveras picked up his league-leading 14th stolen base, but the slumping Rockies lost to the Cardinals, who now boast a 2 game lead in the NL Central ... Speaking of the NL Central, Brewers GM Doug Melvin told the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel on Monday that he's still committed to Eric Gagne as his closer (Gagne has blown 5 saves in 14 chances this season) ... Max Scherzer's first major league start was slightly underwhelming, although not completely disappointing (4 IP, 7 H, 5 R, 2 ER, 5 K vs. Phi); Only 2 walks Monday night; Scherzer's on the right track ... Staying on the west coast, mixed results Monday night for the Mariners' recent call-ups. 0-for-3 with a run scored for C/DH Jeff Clement, who saw his season average drop to .176; meanwhile outfielder Wladimir Balentien (pronounced BAL-en-TEEN) launched his 2nd homer of the year ... Orioles OF Nick Markakis continues to struggle (0-for4 vs. Oak); he's 6-for-40 over his last 10 games, dropping his season average to .263
Prospects: 3 Up, 3 Down
--- 3 Up ---
1. Daryl Thompson, SP (AA-Reds) - 2-1, 0.72 ERA, 42 K, 5 BB - In an already loaded Cincinnati farm system, Chattanooga Lookouts starting pitcher Daryl Thompson has been perhaps the best pitching in the minors so far this year. His stock is shooting through the roof. Through 6 starts this year, Thompson has never allowed more than 1 ER per start. Way, way, way too good for Double-A
2. Clayton Kershaw, SP (AA-Dodgers) - 0-3, 1.11 ERA, 36 K, 11 BB - Through 6 starts this year, the Dodgers' top prospect has quietly done everything the scouts expected. He's allowed more than 1 ER in a game only once this year (he allowed 2 runs in that start). The 6'3'', 220 lb, 20-year old could be the next big thing to hit the pro circuit. Save your waiver priority for this one.
3. Matt LaPorta, OF (AA-Brewers) - .333 avg, 9 HR, 33 RBI, 1.147 OPS - Kershaw probably gives every Southern League hitter nightmares - that is every Southern League hitter except for Matt LaPorta. Currently a Hunstville Star, LaPorta could see a promotion very soon. He's put together 5 multi-hit games in his last 10 - just tearing the cover off the ball.
--- 3 Down ---
1. Colby Rasmus, OF (AAA-Cardinals) - .217 avg, 5 HR, 13 RBI, 4 SB - The Cardinals gave their '05 1st-rounder every opportunity to win a roster spot during spring training, but Rasmus dropped the ball. He's still projected to be a 20/20 player, but now that might come later rather than sooner. At Triple-A Memphis this year, the 21-year-old Rasmus is batting a paltry .188 against righties with more strikeouts than walks. Thats just not gonna cut it.
2. Fernando Martinez, OF (AA-Mets) - .262 avg, 1 HR, 9 RBI, 3 SB - He's only 19 years old, so its hard to fault him too much. Martinez might have been a victim of overly-lofty expectations - however his numbers still aren't good. He's batting .333 so far in May after a lackluster April (.254 avg, 32 Ks). Still needs to learn how to hit lefties (.174 avg)
3. Jose Tabata, OF (AA-Yankees) - .210 avg, 0 HR, 13 RBI, 4 SB - Maybe the New York City hype-machine got the best of both Martinez and Tabata, but the latter is another underachieving 19-year-old prospect. The Yankees are aging not-so-gracefully, so there's no doubt they'd like to see Tabata progress a little quicker. He's seen his average plummet to near the Mendoza line after reaching base via the hit only 6 times in his last 10 games.
1. Daryl Thompson, SP (AA-Reds) - 2-1, 0.72 ERA, 42 K, 5 BB - In an already loaded Cincinnati farm system, Chattanooga Lookouts starting pitcher Daryl Thompson has been perhaps the best pitching in the minors so far this year. His stock is shooting through the roof. Through 6 starts this year, Thompson has never allowed more than 1 ER per start. Way, way, way too good for Double-A
2. Clayton Kershaw, SP (AA-Dodgers) - 0-3, 1.11 ERA, 36 K, 11 BB - Through 6 starts this year, the Dodgers' top prospect has quietly done everything the scouts expected. He's allowed more than 1 ER in a game only once this year (he allowed 2 runs in that start). The 6'3'', 220 lb, 20-year old could be the next big thing to hit the pro circuit. Save your waiver priority for this one.
3. Matt LaPorta, OF (AA-Brewers) - .333 avg, 9 HR, 33 RBI, 1.147 OPS - Kershaw probably gives every Southern League hitter nightmares - that is every Southern League hitter except for Matt LaPorta. Currently a Hunstville Star, LaPorta could see a promotion very soon. He's put together 5 multi-hit games in his last 10 - just tearing the cover off the ball.
--- 3 Down ---
1. Colby Rasmus, OF (AAA-Cardinals) - .217 avg, 5 HR, 13 RBI, 4 SB - The Cardinals gave their '05 1st-rounder every opportunity to win a roster spot during spring training, but Rasmus dropped the ball. He's still projected to be a 20/20 player, but now that might come later rather than sooner. At Triple-A Memphis this year, the 21-year-old Rasmus is batting a paltry .188 against righties with more strikeouts than walks. Thats just not gonna cut it.
2. Fernando Martinez, OF (AA-Mets) - .262 avg, 1 HR, 9 RBI, 3 SB - He's only 19 years old, so its hard to fault him too much. Martinez might have been a victim of overly-lofty expectations - however his numbers still aren't good. He's batting .333 so far in May after a lackluster April (.254 avg, 32 Ks). Still needs to learn how to hit lefties (.174 avg)
3. Jose Tabata, OF (AA-Yankees) - .210 avg, 0 HR, 13 RBI, 4 SB - Maybe the New York City hype-machine got the best of both Martinez and Tabata, but the latter is another underachieving 19-year-old prospect. The Yankees are aging not-so-gracefully, so there's no doubt they'd like to see Tabata progress a little quicker. He's seen his average plummet to near the Mendoza line after reaching base via the hit only 6 times in his last 10 games.
Mad Monday - Today's pitching oddity
PHI: Moyer (1-2) vs. ARZ: Scherzer (0-0), 9:40 p.m. ETJamie Moyer is 45 years old. Monday Night he faces "Mad" Max Scherzer in Phoenix... see Spitting Seeds to read more...
Sunday, May 4, 2008
Two-Start Pitchers (5/5-5/11)
We're taking a look at this coming week's (5/5-5/11) two-start pitchers. Obviously guys like Daisuke Matsuzaka (@ DET, @ MIN) and Javier Vazquez (@ TOR, @ SEA) are going to be slam dunks this week, but unless you have these guys on your team, it doesn't do you much good. We're going to dig a little deeper and find a few guys who might be available in your league that will be good two-start pitchers this week.
1. Gavin Floyd, CHW (vs. MIN, @ SEA) - Floyd is available in about 50% of the leagues out there, and if he's available in your league, you need to go get him NOW. The 25-year old former first-round pick appears to be putting it all together this year. He's 2-1 with a 3.16 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP and 2 very winnable starts this week. He's home against the Twins, who have the second-worst offense in the American League at 4.1 runs per game. Then Floyd pitches at Seattle; the Mariners sport the league 5th worst offense.
2. Joel Pineiro, STL (@ COL, @ MIL) - Pineiro has made 4 starts this year, and each progessive start has been better than the one before it. Last time out, Pineiro beat Johnny Cueto and the Cincinnati Reds (7 IP, H, 0 ER, 3 K). Pineiro is available in about 75% of the leagues out there, so odds are you'll want to pick him up for a pair of starts this week. The Cards visit the punchless Colorado Rockies. Yes its at Coors, but the Rockies' offense isn't exactly lighting the National League on fire (4.3 runs per game). Then its off to Milwaukee to face a Brewers team thats lost 7 of its 10 games. Pineiro is scheduled to pitch against Ben Sheets, who wasn't good on Sunday.
3. Miguel Batista, SEA (vs. TEX, vs. CHW) - In his last 2 starts, Batista has allowed just a single earned run in 14.2 innings. Not bad. Because his ERA is still a bit lofty (4.41), he's available in about 80% of leagues. Go snatch him up tonight. Batista will pitch against the Texas Rangers in a very spacious Safeco Field. By the way, the Rangers have allowed 45 more runs this year than they've scored. Oh yeah, and he's matched up against Sidney Ponson, who's had 2 good starts against 2 terrible offenses. Ponson's lack of talent is bound to catch up with him. Then its off to, oh yeah, Safeco again as the White Sox come to Seattle. Just like the Rangers, the Sox offense is anemic (they've scored 6 runs in their last 4 games.) By the way, neither the Sox nor the Rangers have seen Batista for more than 1 inning this year.
Go get 'em.
1. Gavin Floyd, CHW (vs. MIN, @ SEA) - Floyd is available in about 50% of the leagues out there, and if he's available in your league, you need to go get him NOW. The 25-year old former first-round pick appears to be putting it all together this year. He's 2-1 with a 3.16 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP and 2 very winnable starts this week. He's home against the Twins, who have the second-worst offense in the American League at 4.1 runs per game. Then Floyd pitches at Seattle; the Mariners sport the league 5th worst offense.
2. Joel Pineiro, STL (@ COL, @ MIL) - Pineiro has made 4 starts this year, and each progessive start has been better than the one before it. Last time out, Pineiro beat Johnny Cueto and the Cincinnati Reds (7 IP, H, 0 ER, 3 K). Pineiro is available in about 75% of the leagues out there, so odds are you'll want to pick him up for a pair of starts this week. The Cards visit the punchless Colorado Rockies. Yes its at Coors, but the Rockies' offense isn't exactly lighting the National League on fire (4.3 runs per game). Then its off to Milwaukee to face a Brewers team thats lost 7 of its 10 games. Pineiro is scheduled to pitch against Ben Sheets, who wasn't good on Sunday.
3. Miguel Batista, SEA (vs. TEX, vs. CHW) - In his last 2 starts, Batista has allowed just a single earned run in 14.2 innings. Not bad. Because his ERA is still a bit lofty (4.41), he's available in about 80% of leagues. Go snatch him up tonight. Batista will pitch against the Texas Rangers in a very spacious Safeco Field. By the way, the Rangers have allowed 45 more runs this year than they've scored. Oh yeah, and he's matched up against Sidney Ponson, who's had 2 good starts against 2 terrible offenses. Ponson's lack of talent is bound to catch up with him. Then its off to, oh yeah, Safeco again as the White Sox come to Seattle. Just like the Rangers, the Sox offense is anemic (they've scored 6 runs in their last 4 games.) By the way, neither the Sox nor the Rangers have seen Batista for more than 1 inning this year.
Go get 'em.
Scherzer, Stewart going in different directions
While we here at Sliding Shorts eagerly (that's the understatement of the day) await Max Scherzer's first major league start on Monday, we wonder what the future holds for uber-prospect Ian Stewart.
Partner-site Spitting Seeds has the free update on both names you need to know...
Partner-site Spitting Seeds has the free update on both names you need to know...
Saturday, May 3, 2008
Its pronounced HO-chay-ver
If you're thinking about picking up or trading for Kansas City hurler Luke Hochevar, think carefully before you pull the trigger. At first glance, he seems like a slam dunk: 24 years old, former #1 overall pick, no pressure on a bad Royals team, low 90s fastball. Sure he might end up being a slam dunk, but I'm not willing to bet on it right now.
Sure, Hochevar (pronounced HO-chay-ver) is solid right now. He works quick and carries a good mound presence. He gets ahead of a hitters who haven't seen him yet with fastballs at the knees. He keeps the ball down A LOT, which is great for a young pitcher. Early in the count, with the bases empty, he'll touch 93-94 mph. A lot of ground balls, quick innings - which is what you like to see from a young pitcher.
With that being said, so far through 4 major league starts, Hochevar appears hesitant to challenge hitters. He won't tempt anyone to climb the ladder. He works the corners well, but that leads to more than his fair share of walks (9 BB in 16 IP this year.) When he gets behind in the count, he won't challenge up in the zone. He continues to nibble. His curveball doesn't bite. Its worked sufficiently so far because hitters aren't sure when its coming. His curve is average and it hangs over the plate sometimes - not something you want to see from a sinkerballer.
The talent is there. The future is there. He's got potential to be a #2 or #3 starter, probably nothing more. He doesn't have overpowering stuff, and unless he learns to challenge hitters, he'll never be an overpowering pitcher. Hochevar beat C.C. Sabathia on Saturday night, and he currently sports a 2-1 record and 4.86 ERA. He'll bring some inconsistency but probably more good days than bad.
But remember, its HO-chay-ver.
Sure, Hochevar (pronounced HO-chay-ver) is solid right now. He works quick and carries a good mound presence. He gets ahead of a hitters who haven't seen him yet with fastballs at the knees. He keeps the ball down A LOT, which is great for a young pitcher. Early in the count, with the bases empty, he'll touch 93-94 mph. A lot of ground balls, quick innings - which is what you like to see from a young pitcher.
With that being said, so far through 4 major league starts, Hochevar appears hesitant to challenge hitters. He won't tempt anyone to climb the ladder. He works the corners well, but that leads to more than his fair share of walks (9 BB in 16 IP this year.) When he gets behind in the count, he won't challenge up in the zone. He continues to nibble. His curveball doesn't bite. Its worked sufficiently so far because hitters aren't sure when its coming. His curve is average and it hangs over the plate sometimes - not something you want to see from a sinkerballer.
The talent is there. The future is there. He's got potential to be a #2 or #3 starter, probably nothing more. He doesn't have overpowering stuff, and unless he learns to challenge hitters, he'll never be an overpowering pitcher. Hochevar beat C.C. Sabathia on Saturday night, and he currently sports a 2-1 record and 4.86 ERA. He'll bring some inconsistency but probably more good days than bad.
But remember, its HO-chay-ver.
All-Star balloting in May?
Welcome to May. It's time to vote for the MLB all-star teams! Major League baseball is getting the word out on its site, asking fans to vote up to 25 times for their favorite players. 25 times! That's at least 24 times too many.
...see Spitting Seeds for full article...
...see Spitting Seeds for full article...
Liriano: A long way from fine
Well it could be awhile before we see Francisco Liriano return to form. I, for one, have been a believer in this guy all along, but I'm now coming to grips with the fact that it might be awhile before we see the "old" Liriano again.
In 3 big league starts since returning from injury, Liriano showed no signs of being the ace the Twins hoped he'd be:
vs. KC: 4.2 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 5 BB, 4 K
vs. CLE: 5 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 5 BB, 3 K
vs. OAK: 0.2 IP, 5 H, 6 ER, 3BB, 0 K
Not only was his ERA awful, but his peripherals were terrible as well. Sporting a WHIP of 2.71 and walking more than a batter per inning, the club decided to send Liriano back down to Triple-A Rochester.
Mission Accomplished: Liriano fixed.
Right?
Wrong.
The former phenom made his first minor league start last night for Rochester against Pawtucket, and his line looked eerily similar to his major league starts.
vs. PAW: 4.1 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 5 BB, 3 K
Again ... terrible ERA and WHIP above 2.00. Not good. It could be awhile before we see Liriano return to the big leagues at all, let alone expecting him to return to ace form. The 24-year old has some major problems he needs to get fixed. The ERA and WHIP are up, and the strikeouts are down. Not a good combination.
Its now safe to stay away from this guy in fantasy. He's too good to struggle like this forever, but the Twins will now be measuring his progress in "months," not "weeks." That means it'll be a good long while before we see the old Liriano again.
In 3 big league starts since returning from injury, Liriano showed no signs of being the ace the Twins hoped he'd be:
vs. KC: 4.2 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 5 BB, 4 K
vs. CLE: 5 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 5 BB, 3 K
vs. OAK: 0.2 IP, 5 H, 6 ER, 3BB, 0 K
Not only was his ERA awful, but his peripherals were terrible as well. Sporting a WHIP of 2.71 and walking more than a batter per inning, the club decided to send Liriano back down to Triple-A Rochester.
Mission Accomplished: Liriano fixed.
Right?
Wrong.
The former phenom made his first minor league start last night for Rochester against Pawtucket, and his line looked eerily similar to his major league starts.
vs. PAW: 4.1 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 5 BB, 3 K
Again ... terrible ERA and WHIP above 2.00. Not good. It could be awhile before we see Liriano return to the big leagues at all, let alone expecting him to return to ace form. The 24-year old has some major problems he needs to get fixed. The ERA and WHIP are up, and the strikeouts are down. Not a good combination.
Its now safe to stay away from this guy in fantasy. He's too good to struggle like this forever, but the Twins will now be measuring his progress in "months," not "weeks." That means it'll be a good long while before we see the old Liriano again.
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